Showing posts with label Investments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investments. Show all posts

Tuesday, 3 June 2008

How to Optimise Treasury Strategy and Your Career

Publication: gtnews.com


At the AFP's recent Global Corporate Treasurers Forum in Chicago, topics such as treasury strategy, organisational structure and career progression took centre stage, against the backdrop of the liquidity crisis. 


From 19-21 May, the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP) hosted its annual Global Corporate Treasurers Forum in Chicago. The event, which is limited to treasurers, chief financial officers, controllers, VPs of finance and assistant treasurers, provides attendees with the chance to learn strategy and techniques from industry experts and offers the opportunity to network with treasury peers. 


This was the first Global Corporate Treasurers Forum since the sub-prime market crash in August 2007, so the after effects of this event naturally had an influence on the discussions and presentations in Chicago. However, the overall tone of the three days reflected broader treasury issues, concerns and best practice. The main sessions covered a wide variety of topics, such as managing a global treasury with an eye on strategy, how treasury can drive a reduction of global effective tax rates, what treasurers should be doing to make the leap to CFO, as well as a look at risks in investing liquidity. 


Global Treasury Strategy 


Michael Richard, senior vice president and treasurer at McDonalds, got session proceedings underway with a whistle-stop tour of how he believes McDonalds manages its global treasury with an eye on strategy. He explained how the treasury at McDonalds believes in three key strategies for success: 

  1. Constant change. 
  2. Creating competitive advantages. 
  3. Building relationships. 


These ideals are goals that most companies try to apply in their business plan, but the challenge McDonalds faces in implementing these strategies comes from its business structure. The McDonalds structure is made up of the corporation, suppliers, and franchisees, or "three legs of the stool," as Richard described them. For the company to be successful, all three need to be strong. It is the job of Richard and his treasury colleagues to provide liquidity to all legs of the stool, not just the corporate leg and Richard explained how the treasury works strongly with franchisees. 


While McDonalds is a mostly decentralised company (summed up by their catchy phrase, 'glo-cal'), the treasury department itself is still centralised. From this position, the role of the treasury includes funding, risk management, franchisee and supplier finance, cash management and the sale of non-core assets. With this range of activities, Richard stressed the importance of strategic planning in order to meet the treasury and business objectives. The McDonalds strategy here revolves around five 'Ps' that are included in their 'plan to win': 


  1. People. 
  2. Product. 
  3. Place. 
  4. Price. 
  5. Promotion. 


Focussing on these core areas has seen McDonalds bottom-line results increase in the US and even faster globally. However, Richard did point out that there are still many challenges that the company currently faces. These include credit and funding; rising commodity prices; shareholder relations; accounting rule changes; continuing expansion and internal relationships with other departments, to name but a few. The vast majority of treasurers around the world will have these concerns, so maybe they can draw some comfort from the knowledge that one of the world's most iconic brand names shares these headaches. 


Career Progression 


One of the most popular sessions at the Global Corporate Treasurers Forum was the chance to hear from three CFOs about their current roles and how they had arrived at this position after a career in treasury. The three CFOs in question were Chris Kreidler from C&S Wholesale Grocers, Ira Birns from World Fuel Services Corporation and Don Mulligan from General Mills. Andrew Busch from BMO Capital Markets was the lively moderator for this session. 


In keeping with one of the major themes of the event, Busch asked how it is possible to balance the treasury function with strategy. Kreidler referred to strategy as a full-time job in itself and that he dedicates a set amount of time for this in his working week as he knows his CEO will want to talk about strategy. This was seconded by Birns, who looked slightly pained to add that his CEO is in the office every day and all he usually wants to talk about is strategy. It clearly came across from this part of the discussion that strategic experience is crucial if you want to make the leap from treasurer to CFO. Mulligan, at General Mills, added that smaller is better in terms of the size of your strategy team and that the execution of your strategy is key. He tied this in with the role of treasury, that capital strategy has to be aligned with commercial strategy. 


When asked about the key factors in progressing from treasurer to CFO, all of the CFOs present agreed that it is crucial to build up a broad portfolio of skills. Kreidler described how, when working for Yum! Brands, he took a lot of different jobs and, in his case, marketing experience and field jobs were what the board were looking for. He had line management and international experience and so he ticked all of their boxes for this specific job. While he was thought of as a strategist, he confessed he was really the 'deal man', which involved executing a small part of the strategy. Birns, from World Fuel Services Corporation, also said that it was his deal making that stood out for his first CFO appointment, but he again underlined how important it is to build up a broad portfolio of skills. He pointed to a time he spent working in investor relations, which gave him a whole new insight into the business. 


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Don Mulligan, CFO at General Mills, pointed to five attributes treasurers need to have in order to make the step up to CFO: 


  1. Make sure your functional expertise is up to scratch. 
  2. People development - keep evolving to develop. 
  3. Communication and influencing skills - treasury doesn't have the final call on decisions, so use your influence. Explain your point of view to the board, don't just show them the latest numbers. 
  4. Be the voice of the shareholder. 
  5. Know the business, become a business partner. 
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The issue of character also came across as vitally important in making the step up to CFO. If you have a strong character, your reputation will precede you with the board. C&S's Kreidler described this as an important measuring stick, while Birns made a good case of how you can add value to your department by being a 'straight shooter'. Underlining the importance of having and maintaining an unimpeachable character, General Mills' Mulligan simply stated that if you don't have character and integrity, you won't make it as a CFO, there is zero tolerance in this regard. 


The Q&A session between the three CFOs and the delegates offered the audience a valuable chance to pick the brains of those who have successfully made the leap from treasurer to CFO. In response to a question about the importance of accounting skills when becoming a CFO, C&S's Kreidler noted that there has recently been a swing away from accounting CFOs to strategic CFOs. Accounting is not a prerequisite to being a strong CFO, but if you don't have this background then make sure you have a strong controller. World Fuel Services Corporation's Birns added the caveat that, even though he agreed that the tide is turning, he thinks that accountancy skills are still probably preferred at the moment. 


Possibly eager to enhance their career upon returning to the office, one delegate asked about the qualities that CFOs look for in their treasurer. Mulligan from General Mills explained that he likes to see an understanding of capital markets and how these fit with the overall business plan. He also encouraged the treasury department to communicate directly with the board, not to just speak to them through the CFO. By taking an active role in the company in this way, the treasurer will aid their future career prospects. 


Finally, a question about the inter-company relationship with IT provoked a useful suggestion from Birns. While none of the CFOs had responsibility for their IT departments, he noted that you have got to watch the expense coming out of IT, which can make a big dent in your profit and loss. You need to find out what the returns are on the products that IT may buy. Birns' suggestion was to place someone from treasury into the IT department who, knowing the business strategy, would be able to make sure that IT sees the bigger picture. 


Taxing Times 


The relationship that treasury has with the tax side of business has come under increasing scrutiny over the past 12 months, as companies target wholesale efficiencies in response to the tightening of liquidity. A straw poll of the delegates in a main session looking at treasury and tax showed that around one-sixth of the audience had a tax background, so most attendees were keen to learn more about this side of treasury relations. Dan Munger, partner in international tax services at Deloitte, began the proceedings with an examination of how treasury can be a driver of global effective tax rate (ETR) reduction. Sustained ETR reduction requires a balancing of tax and treasury objectives. Without an appropriate level of continuous co-ordination between tax and treasury, it is impossible to have an effective ETR strategy. Munger pointed out that tax and treasury will always be linked by tax traits, capital structure and the operating model of the business. 


When questioned, a number of treasurers in the audience said that they carry out long-term cash planning on a geographical basis. This important issue for treasury today includes the optimisation of offshore cash and also ensuring the efficient repatriation of this cash. International sales are growing exponentially for US companies (as was mentioned in the talk given by McDonalds' Richard), so US treasurers have to look at their structure to ensure that they are maximising their tax savings. These tax savings can pay for other items that are on the tax department's wish list, so practical steps such as setting up a structure that repatriates overseas cash can provide real value to the company. Deloitte's Munger advised that to build an effective strategy for this, treasurers should forget ideas and 'what ifs' and instead really get into the practical details of the planning. 


One member of the panel for this tax talk, R. Davis Maxey, treasurer and vice president of tax at Ion Geophysical, explained how his company had actually moved US activity outside of the US to Luxembourg for tax reasons. The factors behind this switch were that it led to rapid growth, minimal leverage, while 80% of Ion's customers are international. The savings that this change of location gave the company could then be ploughed back into annual investments in research and development and data libraries - an example of the use of savings that was mentioned earlier. 


The final speaker at this session was George Zinn, corporate vice president and treasurer at Microsoft. His presentation looked at how to simplify treasury management by looking at the lifecycle of the dollar and trying to make flow more efficient. Zinn described how the Worldwide Credit Services Group is the largest Microsoft treasury group. They receive the dollar and need to pass it on to the cash management and treasury operations departments, using SWIFT to provide electronic transparency to all accounts. 


Zinn explained how he thinks that it is critical to have a capital markets long-term portfolio going forward, but that it is important to take the right approach in managing these portfolios. One challenging area that Microsoft has identified is incremental risk, which goes hand in hand with the incremental yield in investment instruments such as money market funds (MMFs). With MMFs, there is a regulatory subtlety that exists between the markets in the US and, for example, Europe. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly regulates which funds can be named and traded as MMFs in the US, under SEC regulation 2a-7. In Europe, the regulations are not defined so strictly and, consequently, some funds that have been trading here as MMFs would not be able to in the US under the same title. When the liquidity crisis hit last year, some of these less-regulated funds failed, while in the words of Zinn, the "somewhat innocuous" US funds held up. Therefore a visibility to risk is crucial when you are heading into more diversified investments. 


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What elements do you need in your investment strategy in order to manage risk while maximising yield? George Zinn, corporate vice president and treasurer at Microsoft, identified four key areas that he suggested treasurers must include in this strategy: 


  1. Value at risk (VaR). 
  2. Stress testing - how would this investment hold up should the worst happen? 
  3. Scenario analysis - test any number of 'what if' possibilities to see if it is an affordable investment.
  4. Counterparty risk - who else does this investment expose you to? 
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Risks in Liquidity Investing


To round off proceedings at the Global Corporate Treasurers Forum, Simon Mendelson, managing director at BlackRock, gave a presentation summing up what has gone so wrong in the markets since last August and what treasury should look out for when investing in liquidity products today. The initial credit crisis became a confidence problem in structured products, with Mendelson choosing to use 'liquidity crisis' as a more appropriate phrase for the market turmoil. In his opinion, we are mostly through this crisis, judging the volatility to be in "the seventh or eighth innings." (For those of you not in North America or Japan, this is baseball terminology - there are nine innings in a regulation game. So, we're nearly there, providing no extra hits are required!) 


Mendelson described how, in the search for yield, securitisation and leverage were encouraged by Wall Street and that the ratings agencies may have played their part in this encouragement. The domino effect this started led to the housing market changing from being an engine of the economy to being a drag on growth. This led to the sub-prime spread - people went to re-price mortgage securities, which was easier said than done. Hedge funds pulled their liquidity out from anywhere, such as enhanced cash funds and, as explained earlier, many of these collapsed. However, MMFs held up, something that Mendelson made clear everyone should be grateful for - if MMFs had not halted the dominoes collapsing then who knows where the economy would have ended up. Would there have been a new 'Great Depression'? He rightly pointed out that it is probably best not to speculate too wildly on this given the uncertainty still apparent in the markets today, but it was not beyond the realms of possibility at the time. However, as the MMFs passed the initial test, people ran to invest in them. However, Mendelson noted how we're not back to normal yet, citing the fact that the asset-backed securities market is still struggling. 


So, going forward, how should treasury behave? Mendelson said that classifying pools of cash is important and noted the three pillars of the treasury cash position: working capital (unpredictable daily liquidity); strategic cash (hoarding, i.e. for an acquisition in the long-term); and core cash (for six months plus). 


When it comes to planning your cash position, the message from the BlackRock MD was to not be too conservative, that it is important for treasury to live for the future as well as living for the here and now. Nevertheless, he drew attention to the paradigm shift that has occurred in investment objectives, with the emphasis now on thinking about risk first, yield last. 


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Simon Mendelson, managing director at BlackRock, signed off his presentation with a seven-point plan of items to remember going forward in any investment strategy: 

  1. Incremental yield is accompanied by incremental risk. 
  2. SEC 2a-7 - know what you are investing in. 
  3. Ratings are not everything - AAA is not without risk. 
  4. Liquidity matters. 
  5. Access to information is important - disclosure. 
  6. Cash investing is not a low risk activity. 
  7. Remember the past, learn from it! 
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A number of these items echo the thoughts and ideas mentioned in other sessions at the Global Corporate Treasurers Forum, from both the presentations and delegates that I spoke to. It feels like liquidity has never been a more important attribute to find and manage in treasury. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant of all risks while pursuing this goal. Next year the Global Corporate Treasurers Forum will be held in Dallas - it will be fascinating to see how the treasury agenda evolves in the 12 months until then.

Tuesday, 31 July 2007

Global FX Markets Thriving in 2007

Publication: gtnews.com

Competition among providers, technological advances and sophisticated investment and risk management strategies mean that corporates are viewing the FX market as a major investment opportunity. 

The global foreign exchange (FX) market is the world's largest marketplace. In 1977, the average daily trading volume was US$5bn, but in the past three years this has seen growth of over 38% and daily volumes reached US$2.9 trillion this year. This is around 50 times more than the daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange. There are a number of reasons for the strong growth - the FX market trades 24 hours a day, is globally diverse and technological advances that automate the trading process create efficiencies. 

The FX market is also being boosted structurally, as Rick Schumacher, at Wall Street Systems, describes in his article, Foreign Exchange: Keeping Pace in an Explosive Market. Just as Russia did in July 2006, when countries make their currencies convertible on the capital account, the trading volume of that currency increases. "Worldwide structural changes are allowing significant increases in assets allocated to international markets," notes Schumacher. This highlights the strategic shift to increasing international allocations that is currently happening in the FX market, which is driving the market's continued growth. 

Where to Get Your FX Fix 

Traditionally, the major high street banks are where corporates go to buy or sell foreign exchange. However, competition has emerged in the FX market that has squeezed the dominance of banks. Taking the UK FX market as his example, James Arnold, at Investec, highlights one challenge to the banks in his article, Non-banks in the UK's FX Market. When FX was dominated purely by banks, it could be argued that areas such as pricing and service were not as competitive as they could have been. This encouraged non-banks to enter the market. Aided by the fact that the FX market in the UK did not require Financial Services Authority (FSA) regulation or banking status, non-banks offered corporates a simple premise - they allowed corporates to book their FX rate and make a payment at the same time, offering attentive customer service and competitive rates. As Arnold notes, "This one-stop shop philosophy attracted many clients. All of a sudden, UK companies could book an FX rate and send their payments with just one phone call." But banks have not been usurped. The diversity of investment instruments available in FX markets extends beyond the reach of non-banks. For example, FX options, which offer corporates a degree of flexibility and security with their investment, can only be traded by FSA-regulated institutions. The entrance of the non-banks to the market has had the effect of forcing banks to improve their competitiveness, not just in the markets where they compete head to head, but across the board. 

In addition to non-banks, the rise of algorithmic trading has shaken the tight grasp that banks had on the FX market. Banks are no longer able to control FX prices and spreads as they used to, because algorithmic trading has levelled the playing field between the buy and sell side. "Trading orders can now be automatically executed; market timing and price can be better controlled; and large volume trades can be automatically divided up into several smaller trades to reduce their market impact," explains Wall Street Systems' Schumacher. 

Who's Investing? 

The broad spectrum of investment instruments, such as forwards, structured derivatives, swaps and options, in the currency derivative market attract a wide range of investors. For example, the flexibility of structured derivatives allows investors to benefit from currency development at the pace they require to hit their goals and can accommodate a variety of risk profiles. 

Hedgers are drawn to the FX market due to the flexible, tailored solutions that are available to them here, according to Anders Vik and ValĂ©rie Schneitter, of Credit Suisse, in their article, Foreign Exchange: An Overlooked Asset Class?. They explain, "In addition to portfolio or cash flow protection against FX risks, the hedger may have the opportunity to benefit from potentially favourable spot movements and enhanced hedging compared to forward transactions, or to reduce the upfront hedge cost compared with a hedge with options." 

In addition, investors and yield enhancers are drawn to FX due to products that offer capital protection even in unfavourable conditions. Some investments can generate returns in rising, falling, or stagnant market conditions. New investment opportunities are being seen in emerging markets, with particularly good growth in Asia and Latin America. "Moreover, structured derivatives offer investors access to currencies that are not freely convertible, such as the Chinese renminbi," explain Credit Suisse's Vik and Schneitter. For example, currency baskets that offer simultaneous exposure to a large number of different currencies are increasingly favoured. 

Technology Increases Sophistication 

As with all areas of finance, technology has an important role to play in FX, making processes more sophisticated and generating extra returns as a result. Electronic FX trading (e-FX) currently accounts for more than 40% of total FX volume, and this is expected to grow to 44% by the end of the year. Electronic trading has made it easier for more investors to enter the market, trade-processing costs have dramatically fallen, and smaller banks are better able to compete with their larger competitors. Schumacher, at Wall Street Systems, explains, "FX straight-through processing reduces capital and hardware costs and, in addition, trading fees for buy-side clients have been reduced substantially and on some platforms have even been eliminated." 

And yet the growth of the FX market, partly boosted by technological innovation, could be putting a strain on the very technology that helped it expand. This is the view of Adam Hawley, at Caplin Systems, in his article, Defining a Web 2.0 Strategy for Online FX Trading Portals. Hawley argues: "The technology deployed in response to the first wave of online trading is not advanced enough to cope with the demand of today's market-savvy participants." As expectations and demands on the FX market evolve and grow, so must the technology that underpins so much of the market activity. This is being seen in the development of Web 2.0 and Rich Internet Applications (RIAs), which are a way of using the Internet as a platform for FX. When it comes to developing a strategy for implementing the new generation technology into their FX operations, there are four areas that Hawley identifies for special attention: drive down latency on core platforms; deliver core functionality to clients over the web; combine FX trading services with other assets; use RIA technologies to deliver the functionality of a desktop trading application through an Internet browser. 

RIA technologies allow external web facing services to be integrated into the platform, such as research and news feeds. This allows traders to make instant decisions as news is happening. In fact, technology is advancing to take this trading decision out of the hands of the human trader, and putting it into the hands of software trading programs instead. News providers such as Dow Jones and Reuters have introduced more structured news feed capabilities to help this happen - by adding XML tags, news feeds can become 'computer readable' by algorithms. "By turning streaming text into 'textual data', such news is much more amenable to automated interpretation by a trading strategy. With the right tags, a strategy can analyse and react to news much more quickly than a human trader could," explains Chris Martins, at Progress Software, in his article, Algorithmic Trading in the FX World

Technology in algorithmic trading is also moving on, from the original 'black box' algorithms, which suffered from being commoditised and didn't allow alpha returns to be realised. The next evolutionary stage in this type of trading has been dubbed 'white box', and these algorithms provide trade strategists with a greater level of control and the ability to act upon unique trading ideas and incorporate these into the code of an algorithm to hopefully generate alpha returns. As Progress Software's Martins notes, "The ability to customise algorithms according to a firm's unique requirements and quickly develop algorithms for first mover advantage brings increased opportunity for competitive gain." 

Investor Strategy 

One way for investors to get a return from the FX markets is to exploit the inefficiency linked to global interest rate differences. While a 12- month money market investment in Switzerland earns interest of 3%, a similar investment in Brazil could earn 10.75%. So-called 'carry strategies' try to profit from these differences, by investing in high yield currencies, and borrowing from low yield ones. This simple premise actually requires a fair deal of skill in predicting market volatility and the ability to take on the risk that this entails. "Timing and risk management are key to the success of such strategies. Even if the risks linked to simple carry trades cannot be eradicated, they can be greatly minimised," say Credit Suisse's Vik and Schneitter. 

In their article, Global FX Markets Today, Kristian Siggard-Jensen and Johan Ditz Lemche, at Saxo Bank, sound a note of caution for carry traders, suggesting that they have become too focussed on differentials and are ignoring global macroeconomic signals. Without the highly volatile market that existed two or three years ago, carry traders are now willing to take more risk as the chance of losing a lot of money is comparatively low. However, Siggard-Jensen and Lemche predict that the interest rate hikes seen in Europe and the US are coming to an end - and it was these rate rises that helped boost returns in the carry trade. They predict a macroeconomic realignment occurring in the near future, which will start either in the US, Japan or New Zealand. "If we were carry traders, we'd look for another month at the most, then take the profits and find something else to put our money into," say Siggard-Jensen and Lemche. This example shows that the global FX market is much more complicated than purely buying one currency, selling another and making a profit. The skill is in managing your risk exposure according to what you can afford and what you hope to get in return, taking into account a number of global market nuances. 

As with other financial markets, the more risk you can afford to take on in FX, the greater the potential returns are. Another form of risk is seen in algorithmic trading - the risk associated with delegating your FX trading to an automated system. However, the same technology that creates this risk can also be used to mitigate it. Technology exists that can monitor portfolios and constantly check value-at-risk to make sure that any breaches of risk thresholds are immediately identified. "Corrective actions can be instantly taken, such as trading to take a position back to a more risk-neutral status," explains Progress Software's Martins. 

Conclusion 

Today's FX market offers investors a wide variety of investment opportunities to suit all tastes and requirements. The rapid growth of this asset class in terms of instruments, currency markets and technology mean that corporates should investigate how adding or enhancing an FX thread to their investment portfolio could boost their returns. As with all asset classes, there are risks in investing in FX, but with a clearly thought out strategy and the right risk management protocols in place, these should cause corporates no undue concern. And with a large variety of banks, non-banks and traders competing to offer corporate FX services, the efficiencies available make the FX market just as viable as any other.