Thursday, 6 September 2007

Operational Risk Factors You Need to Consider

Publication: gtnews.com


Operational risk can pose a threat to your company's performance, reputation and bottom line results. But managed correctly, it can also help you achieve greater efficiencies. 


As defined in the Basel II text, operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or from external events. Mark Opausky, at BPS, describes a scenario that highlights the dangers operational risk can pose, in his article, Risk Management From Your Desktop. In this example, a hedging strategy sold by a financial institution relies on certain raw material market prices. When these prices move in an unanticipated way, the hedge faces serious losses, while the financial institution can lose that most elusive of commodities - reputation. Opausky then shows how these setbacks can themselves then create more problems. A coherent and transparent operational risk management policy can help prevent smaller issues becoming major problems. 


Understanding the Risk 


The risks facing your business come in a number of forms. In her article, Implementing ERM Across the Banking Industry, Carol Beaumier, at Protiviti, splits these risks into three groups: 



  1. Environment risk. 
  2. Process risk. 
  3. Information for decision-making risk. 



Environment risk refers to the uncertainties affecting the viability of the business model, process risk covers uncertainties affecting the execution of the business model, while information risk includes uncertainties affecting the relevance and reliability of the information supporting management decisions to protect and enhance enterprise value. With the number of different risk areas financial companies face, it is vital that there is a consistent interpretation of risk procedures across the organisation. 


Taking an Integrated Approach 


Corporates and financial institutions need to develop clear programmes on how to manage operational risk. These not only help prevent losses, but can also add efficiencies. A recent Morgan Stanley study found that banks delivering superior risk management could reduce capital requirements by 40% and boost working capital. One of the most talked about developments in this area is enterprise risk management (ERM), which offers an integrated framework for risk management across corporate governance and IT governance. The banking industry is relatively advanced in implementing ERM concepts, as shown in a recent study of financial services providers from Cisco that found 49% of respondents had implemented or were implementing an ERM policy. Protiviti's Beaumier notes one advantage of ERM is that "it provides the means for rationalising the multiple risk management processes and systems that exist in many banks." This can help eliminate duplicative efforts and identify any continuing gaps in these processes. 


Consistency of approach is something that Sander van Tol, at Zanders, Treasury & Finance Solutions, rates highly in Corporate Risk Management: Practical Guide for Strategic Decision-Making - Part 4: Corporate Risk Management Framework: Definition of Policy and Strategy (Step 3). He advises corporates: "use a limited number of defined terms and metrics in the risk management policy and also use the same ones in the document to eliminate any errors of interpretation. Defined terms in a risk management policy can be compared with the defined terms of loan documentation, for example." Certain defined terms that should be included are definitions of risk measurement, calculations/formulas, reporting standards and hedging instruments. 


Particular importance should be given to the metrics of the risk management policy. A metric is an overall measure of quantitative/financial objectives so in the previous section, for example, reported earnings can be seen as the metric. Although the end goal is to create shareholder value, one could use reported earnings as a more practical measure. There are other financial measures that are of interest to a company and can be used as metrics as well. A significant one is cash flow and/or the key financial covenants that are included in the loan or bond documentation. "The benefit of defining metrics in your risk policy is that it requires risks to be treated as a portfolio and modeled in conjunction. Often, a budget plan or financial planning model is used to measure the impact of financial risks on the specified metrics," explains van Tol. 


Strategy 


A coherent strategy is key to tackling operational risk and extracting the maximum benefits that can be achieved. In his article, Reputational Risk: A Company's Most Valuable Asset, Jeff DeRose, at OpenPages, offers a three step framework for tackling reputational risk that is also largely transferable to other areas of operational risk: identify and assess; manage and mitigate; monitor and report. The first stage, identify and assess, should include protocols such as operational risk and control self-assessments, compliance assessments, internal policy reviews, vendor management policies and assessments, marketing and customer satisfaction surveys, investor relations and IT governance. "The assessment process should be coordinated for consistency, shedding light on interdependencies and hidden risks, helping to prioritise and focus mitigation efforts," suggests DeRose. This leads straight into the second stage, manage and mitigate, where operational risk policy should be transparent and coordinated, with a specific member of staff (DeRose suggests the chief risk officer) designated to the role of monitoring and managing the risk. Finally, the monitor and report stage should be constant and ongoing, with the appointed staff gathering and analysing key risk indicators and regularly appraising senior board members of the results. 


Technology should also be leveraged as part of an operational risk strategy. A converged platform that offers IT risk control over all areas of operational strategy can help take advantage of overlaps in risk and regulation and reduce compliance costs. Parm Sangha, at Cisco, looks at four key areas such a platform should address, in his article, The Cost and Complexity of ORM and Compliance. These are business continuity, business security, recording and archiving, and finally knowledge management. "This approach to ERM allows institutions to tap into these shared services - increasing return on assets and, importantly, shortening the timeframe needed to meet future regulatory requirements," says Sangha. Being prepared for future compliance needs is one of the most important factors of any operational risk policy, and an outlay on technology and planning now may help avoid future financial penalties. 


Six Sigma is another methodology that can be used to manage organisational risk, according to Bidyut Kaishan, at i-flex Consulting, in his article, Managing Operational Risk With Six Sigma. The Six Sigma technique of process mapping (flow charts) can be used to analyse processes in granular detail, identify gaps in processes and the associated risks. As well as risk identification, Kaishan also describes how the Six Sigma methodology can be used to measure, indicate, mitigate and manage operational risk. "Banks will be able to improve risk perception and, as a result, reduce capital requirement towards operational risk," he argues. 


What is clear from all of these examples is that your business needs a clear, transparent and defined approach to operational risk. New technology and risk models can help in the quest to manage operational risk and compliance issues. By being proactive, companies can offset potentially damaging losses in efficiency, reputation and, most importantly, bottomline results in the future.

Tuesday, 31 July 2007

Global FX Markets Thriving in 2007

Publication: gtnews.com

Competition among providers, technological advances and sophisticated investment and risk management strategies mean that corporates are viewing the FX market as a major investment opportunity. 

The global foreign exchange (FX) market is the world's largest marketplace. In 1977, the average daily trading volume was US$5bn, but in the past three years this has seen growth of over 38% and daily volumes reached US$2.9 trillion this year. This is around 50 times more than the daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange. There are a number of reasons for the strong growth - the FX market trades 24 hours a day, is globally diverse and technological advances that automate the trading process create efficiencies. 

The FX market is also being boosted structurally, as Rick Schumacher, at Wall Street Systems, describes in his article, Foreign Exchange: Keeping Pace in an Explosive Market. Just as Russia did in July 2006, when countries make their currencies convertible on the capital account, the trading volume of that currency increases. "Worldwide structural changes are allowing significant increases in assets allocated to international markets," notes Schumacher. This highlights the strategic shift to increasing international allocations that is currently happening in the FX market, which is driving the market's continued growth. 

Where to Get Your FX Fix 

Traditionally, the major high street banks are where corporates go to buy or sell foreign exchange. However, competition has emerged in the FX market that has squeezed the dominance of banks. Taking the UK FX market as his example, James Arnold, at Investec, highlights one challenge to the banks in his article, Non-banks in the UK's FX Market. When FX was dominated purely by banks, it could be argued that areas such as pricing and service were not as competitive as they could have been. This encouraged non-banks to enter the market. Aided by the fact that the FX market in the UK did not require Financial Services Authority (FSA) regulation or banking status, non-banks offered corporates a simple premise - they allowed corporates to book their FX rate and make a payment at the same time, offering attentive customer service and competitive rates. As Arnold notes, "This one-stop shop philosophy attracted many clients. All of a sudden, UK companies could book an FX rate and send their payments with just one phone call." But banks have not been usurped. The diversity of investment instruments available in FX markets extends beyond the reach of non-banks. For example, FX options, which offer corporates a degree of flexibility and security with their investment, can only be traded by FSA-regulated institutions. The entrance of the non-banks to the market has had the effect of forcing banks to improve their competitiveness, not just in the markets where they compete head to head, but across the board. 

In addition to non-banks, the rise of algorithmic trading has shaken the tight grasp that banks had on the FX market. Banks are no longer able to control FX prices and spreads as they used to, because algorithmic trading has levelled the playing field between the buy and sell side. "Trading orders can now be automatically executed; market timing and price can be better controlled; and large volume trades can be automatically divided up into several smaller trades to reduce their market impact," explains Wall Street Systems' Schumacher. 

Who's Investing? 

The broad spectrum of investment instruments, such as forwards, structured derivatives, swaps and options, in the currency derivative market attract a wide range of investors. For example, the flexibility of structured derivatives allows investors to benefit from currency development at the pace they require to hit their goals and can accommodate a variety of risk profiles. 

Hedgers are drawn to the FX market due to the flexible, tailored solutions that are available to them here, according to Anders Vik and Valérie Schneitter, of Credit Suisse, in their article, Foreign Exchange: An Overlooked Asset Class?. They explain, "In addition to portfolio or cash flow protection against FX risks, the hedger may have the opportunity to benefit from potentially favourable spot movements and enhanced hedging compared to forward transactions, or to reduce the upfront hedge cost compared with a hedge with options." 

In addition, investors and yield enhancers are drawn to FX due to products that offer capital protection even in unfavourable conditions. Some investments can generate returns in rising, falling, or stagnant market conditions. New investment opportunities are being seen in emerging markets, with particularly good growth in Asia and Latin America. "Moreover, structured derivatives offer investors access to currencies that are not freely convertible, such as the Chinese renminbi," explain Credit Suisse's Vik and Schneitter. For example, currency baskets that offer simultaneous exposure to a large number of different currencies are increasingly favoured. 

Technology Increases Sophistication 

As with all areas of finance, technology has an important role to play in FX, making processes more sophisticated and generating extra returns as a result. Electronic FX trading (e-FX) currently accounts for more than 40% of total FX volume, and this is expected to grow to 44% by the end of the year. Electronic trading has made it easier for more investors to enter the market, trade-processing costs have dramatically fallen, and smaller banks are better able to compete with their larger competitors. Schumacher, at Wall Street Systems, explains, "FX straight-through processing reduces capital and hardware costs and, in addition, trading fees for buy-side clients have been reduced substantially and on some platforms have even been eliminated." 

And yet the growth of the FX market, partly boosted by technological innovation, could be putting a strain on the very technology that helped it expand. This is the view of Adam Hawley, at Caplin Systems, in his article, Defining a Web 2.0 Strategy for Online FX Trading Portals. Hawley argues: "The technology deployed in response to the first wave of online trading is not advanced enough to cope with the demand of today's market-savvy participants." As expectations and demands on the FX market evolve and grow, so must the technology that underpins so much of the market activity. This is being seen in the development of Web 2.0 and Rich Internet Applications (RIAs), which are a way of using the Internet as a platform for FX. When it comes to developing a strategy for implementing the new generation technology into their FX operations, there are four areas that Hawley identifies for special attention: drive down latency on core platforms; deliver core functionality to clients over the web; combine FX trading services with other assets; use RIA technologies to deliver the functionality of a desktop trading application through an Internet browser. 

RIA technologies allow external web facing services to be integrated into the platform, such as research and news feeds. This allows traders to make instant decisions as news is happening. In fact, technology is advancing to take this trading decision out of the hands of the human trader, and putting it into the hands of software trading programs instead. News providers such as Dow Jones and Reuters have introduced more structured news feed capabilities to help this happen - by adding XML tags, news feeds can become 'computer readable' by algorithms. "By turning streaming text into 'textual data', such news is much more amenable to automated interpretation by a trading strategy. With the right tags, a strategy can analyse and react to news much more quickly than a human trader could," explains Chris Martins, at Progress Software, in his article, Algorithmic Trading in the FX World

Technology in algorithmic trading is also moving on, from the original 'black box' algorithms, which suffered from being commoditised and didn't allow alpha returns to be realised. The next evolutionary stage in this type of trading has been dubbed 'white box', and these algorithms provide trade strategists with a greater level of control and the ability to act upon unique trading ideas and incorporate these into the code of an algorithm to hopefully generate alpha returns. As Progress Software's Martins notes, "The ability to customise algorithms according to a firm's unique requirements and quickly develop algorithms for first mover advantage brings increased opportunity for competitive gain." 

Investor Strategy 

One way for investors to get a return from the FX markets is to exploit the inefficiency linked to global interest rate differences. While a 12- month money market investment in Switzerland earns interest of 3%, a similar investment in Brazil could earn 10.75%. So-called 'carry strategies' try to profit from these differences, by investing in high yield currencies, and borrowing from low yield ones. This simple premise actually requires a fair deal of skill in predicting market volatility and the ability to take on the risk that this entails. "Timing and risk management are key to the success of such strategies. Even if the risks linked to simple carry trades cannot be eradicated, they can be greatly minimised," say Credit Suisse's Vik and Schneitter. 

In their article, Global FX Markets Today, Kristian Siggard-Jensen and Johan Ditz Lemche, at Saxo Bank, sound a note of caution for carry traders, suggesting that they have become too focussed on differentials and are ignoring global macroeconomic signals. Without the highly volatile market that existed two or three years ago, carry traders are now willing to take more risk as the chance of losing a lot of money is comparatively low. However, Siggard-Jensen and Lemche predict that the interest rate hikes seen in Europe and the US are coming to an end - and it was these rate rises that helped boost returns in the carry trade. They predict a macroeconomic realignment occurring in the near future, which will start either in the US, Japan or New Zealand. "If we were carry traders, we'd look for another month at the most, then take the profits and find something else to put our money into," say Siggard-Jensen and Lemche. This example shows that the global FX market is much more complicated than purely buying one currency, selling another and making a profit. The skill is in managing your risk exposure according to what you can afford and what you hope to get in return, taking into account a number of global market nuances. 

As with other financial markets, the more risk you can afford to take on in FX, the greater the potential returns are. Another form of risk is seen in algorithmic trading - the risk associated with delegating your FX trading to an automated system. However, the same technology that creates this risk can also be used to mitigate it. Technology exists that can monitor portfolios and constantly check value-at-risk to make sure that any breaches of risk thresholds are immediately identified. "Corrective actions can be instantly taken, such as trading to take a position back to a more risk-neutral status," explains Progress Software's Martins. 

Conclusion 

Today's FX market offers investors a wide variety of investment opportunities to suit all tastes and requirements. The rapid growth of this asset class in terms of instruments, currency markets and technology mean that corporates should investigate how adding or enhancing an FX thread to their investment portfolio could boost their returns. As with all asset classes, there are risks in investing in FX, but with a clearly thought out strategy and the right risk management protocols in place, these should cause corporates no undue concern. And with a large variety of banks, non-banks and traders competing to offer corporate FX services, the efficiencies available make the FX market just as viable as any other.

Wednesday, 13 June 2007

The Status of Money Market Funds in 2007







Publication: gtnews.com

Money market funds (MMFs) have been popular short-term investment instruments in the US for over 30 years, and are now going from strength to strength in other regions such as Europe and Asia. This commentary looks at the different types of MMFs available, what is influencing their global performance, and what new developments may help sustain their growth.

Variation in MMFs

As an investment instrument, there are three key areas that MMFs offer a return on: security of investment, liquidity, and yield. As treasury might, at any one time, place a higher value on one of these features, there are different varieties of MMFs to cater for different corporate needs. In his article, Different MMFs for Alternative Treasury Goals, Andy Kelly from Fidelity offers definitions of three different types of MMF. Kelly says: "At one end of the spectrum are liquidity funds, which invest exclusively in high credit quality and liquid investments. This type of fund has a typical weighted average maturity of 60 days or less, and provides daily liquidity as well as a stable net asset value (NAV)." Further along this spectrum are 'cash-plus' funds, which invest in more illiquid instruments of slightly lesser credit quality, extend portfolio maturity further out onto the yield curve, or sacrifice same-day liquidity to aim to produce higher returns. Cash-plus funds are more suited for capital that a corporate may wish to invest on a six to 12 month timeline. And finally, at the far end of the MMF timeline, are enhanced cash funds. These invest a portion of their assets in riskier, more volatile or less-liquid assets, such as asset- or mortgagebacked securities, or apply less stringent restrictions on the credit quality of their investments in order to boost returns. The main focus of enhanced cash funds is to generate maximum yield, and is suited for corporate treasurers with a longer-term investment of at least one year minimum.

In her article, Liquidity Funds Hit Their Stride, Kathleen Hughes from J.P. Morgan Asset Management examines the benefits of liquidity funds, particularly when compared with investing the same cash into a regular bank account. According to Hughes, liquidity funds differ to bank deposits in that the risk to money invested is spread across dozens of different securities. She says: "Credit is diversified and volatility reduced through a broad portfolio mix, with a maximum of 5% of the fund placed with any one issuer and diversified across industries." Furthermore, the securities in which liquidity funds are invested can help many funds obtain a triple-A rating from Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch. This contrasts with banks, whose own ratings are typically double-A or worse. 

Cashing In 

Clearly, as a short-term investment instrument, MMFs have a lot to offer corporate treasury. In her article, MMF Portals - Becoming a Reality in the European Market, Kate Baldridge, of Institutional Cash Distributors (ICD), notes that MMFs in the US hit an all time high in May 2007, with assets of around US$2.5 trillion. 

But this record-breaking success cannot simply be down to the choice and innovation of product offerings available, the continued growth of MMFs also reflects what is happening in the market as a whole. Peter Knight of HSBC draws attention to this in his article, Five Effective Principles For Global Cash Management, noting: "Over the past decade, the amount of cash held by S&P500 companies has risen from US$100bn to US$600bn. The result of a prolonged global economic boom and a growing tendency to retain cash rather than make expensive acquisitions, this trend means that corporate cash is now equivalent to about 7% of the S&P500's total market capitalisation." With such vast amounts of cash available, it is understandable that treasurers are investing in a variety of MMF products. This was clearly a factor in May's US record high, and is also being seen in other global markets. 

The continued growth of MMFs in the US has come at a time when some aspects of the economy would not necessarily seem to encourage it. George Hagerman of CacheMatrix identifies two of these market trends that MMFs have bucked in his article, Converging Factors Boost US Institutional MMFs. Hagerman says: "The first factor is the relative strength of the US stock market. In general, a rising stock market typically means that cash positions fall as investors put more money into equities markets. Yet with major market indicies moving generally upward over the past few years… MMFs have also continued to rise." Hagerman also draws attention to the growth of aggressive company stock buy-back programmes, and how MMF take-up has still grown despite this. 

Regional Trends 

MMFs have increased in popularity in Europe throughout the past decade. In his article, The Current State and Future Potential of European Offshore MMFs, Justin Rose of Standard Life Investments explains that: "European offshore MMFs under management grew rapidly from US$70bn in 2000 to US$496bn. The key growth factors were a combination of corporates building up unprecedented cash reserves… and a relatively stable, historically low interest rate environment." 

However, even despite this large and quick growth in Europe, Fidelity's Kelly points out that, "MMFs still only represent 4% of European broad money supply (M3) compared to 25% of M3 in the US." Clearly there is still vast potential growth left in the European MMF market, and Kelly mentions that some analysts believe in the next five years MMF assets under management in Europe could hit US$1 trillion. This would still appear to leave the US as the major home for MMFs, looking at the record total of assets under management previously mentioned. 

With regards to liquidity funds, Hughes, from JPMorgan Asset Management, describes how the European market for these has been increasing roughly 50% yearly. Hughes suggests that: "Increasing merger and acquisition activity [is a] potential driver behind the surge in European demand for very liquid strategies. Demand in recent years has also lead to the creation of many other markets, particularly in Asia and South America, with the development of local currency liquidity funds." As the market for MMFs continues to grow at high rates in the US and Europe, it does seem to be a natural consequence that they will take hold in more emerging economies also, provided the infrastructure to support the market exists. One cautionary note on this topic is provided by HSBC's Knight, who warns that: "Processes and systems in Asia remain highly fragmented - particularly given the high levels of foreign exchange control in markets such as China and India." 

Regulatory Support 

Regulations that govern MMF structures have always been important in supporting the growth of these investment instruments - something that has been seen historically and is still seen today. Standard Life Investment's Rose notes that Rule 2a-7 in the 1940 Investment Company Act was crucial for the growth of MMF market, providing it with a regulatory structure. In contrast, the European MMF market has been lacking an equivalent to the Rule 2a-7. But, in recent years, some European legislation has contained elements that should have a positive knock-on effect on MMFs. But Rose notes: "To date, the sizeable new investment flows expected from regulatory changes, such as the risk weighting changes under the Basel II-inspired Capital Requirements Directive (CRD), have yet to materialise. Although Basel II came into effect on 1 January 2007, its implementation needs to be viewed as a process, as the regulators allow financial institutions to gradually release capital. For example a 100% capital floor for the Internal Ratings Based (IRB) Advanced Approach does not come into effect until 2010." 

So regulatory progress in Europe may be somewhat slower than appearances suggest. However, Fidelity's Kelly emphasises a positive development: "As a consequence of the CRD, many MMFs having a triple-A rating are being put in line with bank deposits in terms of regulatory treatment. Furthermore, from November 2007, custodians holding client money will be able to place it in certain MMFs under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), rather than being restricted to bank deposits." Regulatory support such as this is key to the European MMF market reaching a similar level of maturity as its US counterpart. 

And there is some positive news from Standard Life Investment's Rose as well: "The Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) Directive now accommodates MMFs and legitimises the use of amortised accounting. This has been a step towards the goal of an integrated market and, if European regulators can remove the administrative and regulatory frictions that slow down cross-border market access, a functioning pan-European integrated market may yet be achievable." 

Delivering MMF Performance 

As with every area in modern cash management, MMFs should provide the best returns as efficiently as possible for the treasurer or investor. This means automation, and the most popular form of automation in the MMF marketplace is to use an Internet-based platform 'portal'. As Standard Life Investments' Rose explains: "MMF portals have become an important part of the European MMF industry as they clearly offer the right service for some clients." Rose continues: "Portals will continue in importance as institutional investors are likely to be more performance driven than retail investors and they will utilise portals as they demand speed of execution, transparency, larger size tickets, lower transaction costs, later cut-off times and straight-through processing (STP)." 

In terms of the future for MMF portals, ICD's Baldridge identifies three key developments for this technology - the development of a comprehensive cross-market trading platform that can offer STP, the addition of confirmation matching to MMF portals, and the ability to offer a selection of different enhanced funds. She suggests that these additions would help to create a "complete short term liquidity tool." 

Conclusion 

The global MMF industry is in good health, with record levels in the US, European take-up rapidly advancing and new funds emerging in regions such as Asia and South America. The regulatory environment is making MMFs more appealing to investors that would previously have used bank deposits but are now encouraged to take advantage of the variety of MMFs available, depending on their investment requirements. 

But does the growth in the MMF market necessarily indicate that it is the best place for cash rich companies to invest? Of course not, but when considered in the context of an overall cash management policy MMFs do have a lot of attractive elements. Corporate treasurers need to ensure they have a well thought out and responsive cash management policy - something that HSBC's Knight covers, by setting out his five principles of global cash management. These are: 1) manage cashflows effectively; 2) forecast cashflows accurately; 3) tranche cashflows intelligently; 4) establish an appropriate investment policy, and; 5) implement effective investment management. These are core strategies that, if given enough attention by corporate treasury, should ensure that maximum value is taken from all cash management activities, including MMFs.